In Haryana, BJP exploits anti-Congress sentiment to deepen footprint

The Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) has achieved its best-ever performance in Haryana in the 2024 assembly elections. Both its seat share and vote share, 53.3% and 39.9% respectively are the highest ever for the party in any assembly election in the state. A statistical analysis of the results besides these headline numbers shows a more comprehensive story of a growing and deepening BJP footprint in the state. Here is how.

The BJP has been in the fray in more seats in Haryana between 2014 to 2024

A good way to measure whether or not a party is a force to reckon with in a state is to look at the number of constituencies where it finishes either first or second. In Haryana, this number has increased continuously for the BJP between 2014 to 2024, the numbers being 64, 77 and 81 in the 2014, 2019 and 2024 assembly elections respectively.

The BJP has increased its vote share in almost all regions of the state

There is both a statistical and anecdotal way to substantiate this claim. The BJP’s median vote share – median represents the middle value in a distribution – in the 2024 elections is 44.5%, significantly more than the 32.4% and 37.1% value it took in the 2014 and 2019 assembly elections. Even a quintile-wise distribution of the BJP vote share – its average vote share distribution from the worst to best 18 constituencies in an assembly of 90 – shows a sustained improvement in every quintile except the bottom quintile between 2014 and 2024. A broad region-wise break-up of vote share – sub-regions being Jat Land, northern and southern Haryana – also shows a vote share improvement in every election since 2014.

BJP’s success in Haryana is consolidating the anti-Congress vote rather than taking away the Congress vote

This is the most critical aspect of the BJP’s success in Haryana. The Congress has improved its vote share by 18.5 percentage points between the 2014 and 2024 assembly elections in Haryana and yet its seat share has improved by just 24.4 percentage points with its seat share to vote share ratio falling in every election between 2014 and 2024. This is because of the BJP’s ability to eat into the support base of all non-Congress non-BJP parties in the last ten years with their combined vote share falling from 46.42% in 2014 to just 20.97% in 2024. Perhaps, what has helped the BJP’s quest in this pursuit is its larger national and ideological appeal rather than just local caste-based arithmetic.