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On September 30, 2015, the Russian Federation had entered the Syrian civil war, stopping the rebels and saving the Baathist regime in Damascus
Syrian President Bashar Assad (left) with Russian President Vladimir Putin. (AP File)
The fall of Syrian President Bashar Assad’s government on Sunday brought to a dramatic close his nearly 14-year struggle to hold onto power as his country fragmented amid a brutal civil war that became a proxy battlefield for regional and international powers.
It also reminded of the time when Russia had rushed to Assad’s help.
Syrian rebels on Sunday declared the capital Damascus “free” after entering the city to scant resistance from regime forces, claiming Assad has fled the capital.
With no clear successor, it throws the country into further uncertainty.
The Syrian war has killed nearly half a million people and displaced half the country’s pre-war population of 23 million. As the uprising spiraled into a civil war, millions of Syrians fled across the borders into Jordan, Turkey, Iraq and Lebanon and on to Europe. His departure brings an end to the Assad family rule, spanning just under 54 years.
THE ARAB SPRING: HOW IT BEGAN
The Arab Spring was a series of anti-government protests, uprisings and armed rebellions that spread across much of the Arab world in the early 2010s. It began in Tunisia in response to corruption and economic stagnation. From Tunisia, the protests then spread to five other countries: Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Syria and Bahrain.
As marches seeking the release of youngsters who put out anti-regime graffiti on in Southern Daraa spread, Assad used military firepower, soon escalating it to a civil war. By 2012, rebel brigades seized key cities in the north, including parts of Aleppo, Syria’s largest city.
In 2014, the Islamic State caliphate was formed. As it claimed roughly a third of Syrian territory, with Raqqa as its capital, it led to other triggers.
RUSSIA TO THE RESCUE
The fighting since 2011 and desertion had weakened the Syrian Arab Army, despite the support of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), deployment of Iranian militias and Russian mercenaries, and regular shipments of Russian weaponry. In March 2015, the Syrian government lost a second provincial capital, Idlib, in addition to Raqqa, Aleppo, Deir Az Zor, Hassakeh, Deraa and Quneitra.
On September 30, 2015, the Russian Federation entered the Syrian civil war.
Russian air and missile strikes began targeting the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), the Army of Conquest, al-Nusra Front, and the Free Syrian Army. It also provided armament and air support to Turkey and the Syrian Democratic Forces in their operations against ISIL in Syria.
Russia moved beyond bombing just military targets and began bombing hospitals and medical facilities. Russia’s intervention stopped the rebels, which were backed by the West, Turkey and the Gulf, and effectively preserved the Baathist regime in Damascus.
This made Russia more assertive in the Middle East, leading to parallels with Cold War-era regional dynamics.
In five years, Russia not only managed to preserve the Syrian government, but also largely marginalised the opposition and the political-military force. Russia’s leading role in Syria also gave it regional leverage beyond the Syrian borders.
OTHERS WEREN’T AS LUCKY
The 2011 Arab Spring saw Libya descend into a civil war with protests against corruption and unemployment. NATO intervened militarily on the side of the anti-Gaddafist National Transitional Council (NTC). Gaddafi’s government was overthrown. He retreated to Sirte only to be captured, tortured and killed by NTC militants.
Hosni Mubarak stepped down during the Egyptian Revolution of 2011 after 18 days of demonstrations.
During the Tunisian revolution, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, known as Ben Ali or Ezzine, was overthrown in 2011 and fled to Saudi Arabia.
Yemen’s Ali Abdullah Saleh Saleh was ousted as President in 2012.
With Agency Inputs