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US Election 2024: Indian Americans have historically favoured the Democrats. But there has been an incremental shift in the community’s voting behaviour in favour of the Republican Party this election
After Kamala Harris received the Democratic presidential nomination in August, various Indian-American and South Asian American groups have been engaged in mobilising support for her. (Image: Reuters/AP Photo)
There are roughly 5.2 million Indian Americans in the US, forming the second-largest immigrant group in the country, after Mexicans. The community has played an important role in the country’s politics, with many presidential candidates and Congressmen elected from the community.
Historically, Indian Americans have favoured the Democratic Party in overwhelming numbers. But the Republican Party feels that their votes can be tapped into over the party’s stand on economy, social issues, and India-US bilateral relations.
The Mood Of The Indian Americans This Election
Milan Vaishnav, senior fellow and Director of the South Asia Program at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told ANI that Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, and Michigan are important swing states where Indian Americans are large enough in numbers to be greater than the margin between the two Presidential nominees.
According to a survey conducted by the Carnegie Endowment International Peace in October 2024, which was a follow up to a survey done in 2020, 47% of respondents identify as Democrats, down from 56% in 2020. The share of Republican identifiers has held steady while the percentage of independents has grown.
The 2024 survey also highlighted that 61% of registered Indian-American voter respondents plan to vote for Harris while 32% intend to vote for Trump. There has been a modest shift in the community’s preferences, with a greater share of respondents willing to vote for Trump since the last 2020 election.
The survey showed 67% women of Indian-American voter respondents intend to vote for Harris compared to 53% of men. Twenty-two percent of women intend to vote for Trump while 39% plan to cast their ballots for him.
The data suggest that the Indian-American community holds a dim view of the Republican Party. The party is out of sync with the multiple policy positions held by the members of the community.
The survey also stressed that abortion and reproductive rights are a “highly salient issue for Indian Americans this election year, ranking as their second-most-important policy concern”, after inflation, economy and jobs.
Demographics of Indian Americans
There are approximately 5.2 million people of Indian origin residing in the US today, of which 3.9 million are 18 or older. Based on 2022 data, there are roughly 2.6 million eligible Indian-American voters today.
Between 2010 and 2020, the community has grown by 50%, making it the second-largest immigrant community by origin, after Mexican-Americans. Of those born outside the US, 70% entered the country after the 2000.
Over the years, the community has elevated its socio-economic status, making them an attractive target for the political parties. An average Indian-American household has an income of $153,000, more than double the figure for the country as a whole.
Harris vs Trump
After Harris received the Democratic presidential nomination in August, various Indian-American and South Asian American groups have been engaged in mobilising support for her, including through raising funds.
In the final New York Times/Siena College national poll from October 20 to 23, the two aspirants are tied at 48%. The remaining 4% are yet to decide on their preference.
A separate poll conducted by the Financial Times and the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business showed that 44% of respondents trust Trump to handle the economy as opposed to 43% for Harris.
“When you ask Indian-American voters why they don’t associate themselves with the Democratic Party, why is that they choose not to identify with the party that it has long been the natural home for Indian-Americans for the last several election cycles, they say things like and they believe that the democratic party is too weak on illegal immigration, they are quite concerned about inflation, about prices, about job opportunities and a significant percentage of them believe that the Democrats and left has been too involved in identity politics. So, these are some of the things that we are seeing in the data, particularly amongst men,” Vaishnav said.
The Carnegie Endowment survey also suggested that Asian Americans may be gradually shifting their loyalties from the Democratic Party towards the Republican Party. “Compared to other racial groups, Asian Americans tend to have weaker attachments to political parties, and recent elections have seen an incremental shift in this group’s voting behavior in favor of the Republican Party, a trend observed among other non-White voters as well,” the survey showed.
The seven key swing states which are seen to be crucial to determining the election results are Georgia, Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Nevada.
Rise Of Indian Americans In US Politics
In 2013, the House of Representatives had a single Indian American member. Fewer than 10 were serving in state legislatures. None had been elected to the Senate. Ten years later, the Congress included five Indian Americans. Nearly 50 are in state legislatures.
Nikki Haley’s campaign announcement in 2023, Vivek Ramaswamy’s candidacy early this year and Kamala Harris running for president made 2024 the first cycle with two Indian Americans.
The watershed appears to have been 2016, just after then-Gov. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana became the first Indian American to run for president. The same year, Representatives Pramila Jayapal of Washington, Ro Khanna of California and Raja Krishnamoorthi of Illinois were elected, bringing the number of Indian Americans in the House from one — Representative Ami Bera of California, elected in 2012 — to four. It was also the year Kamala Harris became the first Indian American elected to the Senate.
Since then, the number in state legislatures has more than tripled. In January 2023, the four House members — who call themselves the Samosa Caucus — were joined by Representative Shri Thanedar of Michigan.
By and large, Indian Americans have been elected from the Democratic Party. All five Indian Americans in Congress, and almost all state legislators, are Democrats.
In a 2020 study, nearly 60% of Indian Americans did say they would be open to voting for an Indian American candidate “regardless of their party affiliation,” as per The New York Times.
Indian Americans Running This Election
More than three dozen Indian Americans are running for local bodies and state legislation elections this time.
Probably the largest number of Indian Americans running for local offices are in the state of California, which sends two members to the House of Representatives – Ro Khanna and Dr Ami Bera – in addition to Vice President Kamala Harris whose mother was from India.
Adlah Chisti is running for County Supervisor for District 11, Aliya Chisti for City College Board San Francisco, Darshana Patel for State Assembly, Nicole Fernandez for San Mateo City Council, Nithya Raman for Los Angeles City Council, Richa Awasthi for Foster City Council and Sukhdeep Kaur for Emeryville City Council.
Tara Sreekrishnan is seeking to enter California’s State Assembly from District 26 in Silicon Valley.
In Michigan, Dr Ajay Raman, is running for Oakland County Commissioner for District 14; while Anil Kumar and Ranjeev Puri are running for the Michigan State House.
Indian Americans form a crucial part of Arizona’s diversity. riya Sundareshan is running for the State Senate in Arizona and Ravi Shah is running for School Board. In Pennsylvania, Anand Patek, Anna Thomas, and Arvind Venkat are running for State House, while Nikil Saval is seeking to enter the State Senate.
In Illinois, Anusha Thotakura is running for school board and Nabeel Syed for State House.
If elected Ashwin Ramaswamy would be the youngest ever elected to the Georgia State Senate. Of late he has been subject to racial and hate attacks by his opponents.
In Ohio, Chantel Raghu is running for County Commissioner and Pavan Parikh for County Clerk of Courts, while in Virginia Danny Avula is running for Mayor of Richmond.
In New York, Jeremy Cooney and Manita Sanghvi are running for State Senate while Zohran Mamdani is seeking to enter the State Assembly.
Indian Americans running for local offices in Texas are Ashika Ganguly for City Council, Karthik Soora (State Senate), Nabil Shike (County Constable), Ramesh Premkumar (City Council), Ravi Sandill (Judge), Salman Bhojani (State House), Shekhar Sinha (State House), Sherine Thomas (Judge), Suleman Lalani (State House) and Sumbel Zeb as County Appraisals Court.
(with inputs from PTI)