VP Kamala Harris has recently gained a lead over former US President Donald Trump in national polls as more voters move away from third-party candidates.
According to Goldman Sachs, the vice president’s rise in the polls has contributed to a growing likelihood of a “blue wave,” with Democrats potentially sweeping the White House and Congress in the upcoming election.
Since President Joe Biden announced last month that he would not seek reelection, Harris has emerged as the presumptive Democratic nominee. Biden endorsed Harris, stating, “Today I want to offer my full support and endorsement for Kamala to be the nominee of our party this year. Democrats — it’s time to come together and beat Trump.”
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Democratic sweep likely as Harris’s popularity grows
Over this period, her national polling numbers have improved by about three percentage points. She has also seen gains in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, where Trump currently holds a razor-thin 0.2 percentage point lead over her. To secure the presidency, Harris needs to win at least 270 electoral votes.
Goldman Sachs analysts noted that Harris’s rapid rise in the polls has significantly increased the chances of a Democratic sweep in the election, a scenario that seemed unlikely just a short while ago.
One of the factors contributing to Harris’s surge has been the sharp decline in support for third-party candidates. Before Biden’s withdrawal from the race, third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, and Cornel West were polling at over 10%. Since then, their combined support has dropped to 6%.
“While third-party candidates had been drawing slightly more from Biden earlier in the year, what is left of third-party support seems to be coming at least as much from former President Trump,” the Goldman analysts wrote.
The percentage of undecided voters has also decreased significantly since Harris entered the race. According to the investment bank, the number of undecided voters is now half of what it was a month ago, and these numbers are likely to remain steady moving forward.
Despite the unemployment rate rising for the third consecutive month, reaching 4.3%, a recent poll conducted by the Financial Times and the University of Michigan Ross School of Business found that 42% of voters believe Harris would be better than Trump at managing the economy.